Motivation and emotion/Book/2023/Impact bias

Impact bias:
What is impact bias, what causes it, what are its consequences, and how can it be avoided?

Multimedia presentation (3 min)

Overview

Case study  Add a relevant image to this case study My ex-partner and I have been in a romantic relationship for one and a half years Doesn't make sense - if ex-partner, why is relationship current?. We've had our ups and downs, but recently, we've decided to break up. My ex-partner initiated the breakup because they felt the relationship was no longer fulfilling their needs, while I was initially resistant to the idea but eventually agreed. How does this relate to impact bias? Explain.

Figure 1. How most university students will feel about life, once they have graduated. (Disregarding the fact that there will be other matters to deal with).

Impact bias is a cognitive tendency where people overestimate the emotional intensity and duration of their future reactions to both positive and negative events (Wilson & Gilbert, 2005).

This leads to inaccurate predictions about how events will make them feel, see figure 1. Impact bias affects decision-making, causing individuals to avoid opportunities, worry excessively, and miss out on enjoying experiences. To counter this bias, one should reflect on past experiences, consider similar situations, practice mindfulness, seek advice, and focus on coping strategies to make more accurate emotional predictions (Wilson, Meyers & Gilbert, 2003).

Focus questions: What is impact bias? What causes it? What are its consequences? How can it be avoided?

What is impact bias?

Impact bias refers to the tendency of people to overestimate the emotional impact of future events, both positive and negative. In other words, individuals often predict that future events will have a stronger and longer-lasting emotional effect on them than they actually do. This cognitive bias can lead to inaccurate predictions about how certain experiences or outcomes will make them feel (Morewedge & Buechel, 2013).

For example, someone might anticipate that a promotion at work would make them incredibly happy and satisfied for a long time, but when the promotion actually happens, the emotional impact might not be as intense or enduring as they initially thought. Similarly, individuals might dread an upcoming event or change, believing it will make them feel much worse than it actually does once they experience it.

Impact bias can influence decision-making, as people may avoid certain situations or make choices based on their exaggerated expectations of emotional impact. This bias has been observed in various areas of life, including relationships, career decisions, consumer behaviour, and more. Understanding impact bias can help individuals make more rational and realistic predictions about how future events will affect their emotions, leading to better decision-making and emotional well-being (Wilson & Gilbert, 2005).

Prediction inaccuracy

Figure 2. How most people feel when they inaccurately predict how they will feel, and realise that the outcome is not as bad as they imagined

Prediction inaccuracy, refers to the phenomenon where people's predictions about the emotional impact of future events are not accurate or are biased. Specifically, it means that individuals tend to make inaccurate forecasts about how they will feel in response to positive or negative events, and these predictions often deviate from their actual emotional experiences.

Impact bias typically involves prediction inaccuracy in the following ways:

1. Overestimating emotional impact: People tend to overestimate the strength and duration of the emotional impact of future events, particularly negative ones. For example, someone might predict that failing a job interview would devastate them emotionally for a very long time, when in reality, they may adapt and recover more quickly than expected.
2. Underestimating emotional adaptation: Prediction inaccuracy also involves underestimating the capacity for emotional adaptation. Individuals tend to underestimate their own resilience and the fact that they can bounce back from emotional experiences, returning to their baseline emotional state over time.
3. Overvaluing positive events: On the flip side, the impact bias can lead people to overvalue the positive emotional impact of future events. For instance, someone might predict that winning the lottery will bring them eternal happiness, but in reality, the initial elation tends to diminish over time as people adapt to their new circumstances.
4. Ignoring other factors: Prediction inaccuracy often results from a failure to consider other factors that can influence emotional experiences. People may focus solely on the event itself and neglect to consider their overall life circumstances, daily routines, and other events that might intervene and influence their emotions.

Overall, prediction inaccuracy in impact bias highlights the discrepancy between what people anticipate they will feel in response to future events and what they actually experience. This phenomenon underscores the limitations of human emotional forecasting and the biases that can affect our ability to predict our own emotional responses accurately. Understanding prediction inaccuracy can lead to more realistic expectations and better decision-making in various life situations (Wilson, Meyers & Gilbert, 2003).

Positive and negative events

Positive and negative events can have different effects on impact bias, influencing how individuals predict and experience the emotional impact of these events. Here's how positive and negative events can affect the impact bias:

1. Positive events:
   • Overestimation of positive impact: When people anticipate positive events, such as receiving a promotion or going on a vacation, they often overestimate the extent to which these events will boost their happiness and well-being. This overestimation is a manifestation of impact bias. They may imagine that the positive emotions will be more intense and last longer than they actually do.
   • Elation and adaptation: Initially, positive events do often lead to feelings of elation and increased happiness. However, the impact of these events tends to diminish over time as individuals adapt to their new circumstances. This process of adaptation is often underestimated in predictions, contributing to impact bias.
   • Social comparison: Social comparison can play a role in impact bias for positive events. People may compare their anticipated emotional reactions to the reactions of others who have experienced similar positive events. This can lead to inflated expectations, as they assume they should feel a certain way based on these comparisons.
2. Negative events:
   • Overestimation of negative impact: Conversely, when people anticipate negative events, such as failing an exam or experiencing a breakup, they often overestimate the extent to which these events will lead to negative emotions and long-lasting distress. This overestimation is a key component of impact bias.
   • Resilience and adaptation: Human beings are generally resilient and have a natural tendency to recover emotionally from negative events over time. However, this capacity for emotional resilience is frequently underestimated when predicting the impact of negative events. People may believe that they will be more devastated or distressed than they actually end up being.
   • Social comparison: Similar to positive events, social comparison can also influence the impact bias for negative events. People may compare their anticipated emotional reactions to those of others who have gone through similar negative experiences, leading to expectations that may not align with their actual emotional responses.

In summary, both positive and negative events can contribute to impact bias by causing individuals to make inaccurate predictions about their emotional reactions. For positive events, people tend to overestimate the magnitude and duration of positive emotions, while for negative events, they tend to overestimate the intensity and duration of negative emotions. Understanding these biases can help individuals make more realistic predictions and better cope with the emotional consequences of various life events (Wilson & Gilbert, 2005).

Decision influence

The concept of "decision influence" in the context of impact bias refers to how impact bias can affect decision-making. In other words, impact bias can influence the choices and decisions that individuals make because they often mis-predict how they will feel about the outcomes of those decisions. Here's how decision influence works in the context of the impact bias:

1. Risk aversion and avoidance: People tend to be more risk-averse when making decisions that involve potential negative outcomes due to the impact bias. They overestimate the emotional toll of potential failures or losses, leading them to avoid taking risks even when the potential benefits outweigh the perceived emotional costs. For example, someone might avoid starting a new business venture because they fear the emotional impact of failure, even if the odds of success are relatively good.
2. Loss aversion: Loss aversion is a related psychological phenomenon where people tend to weigh potential losses more heavily than equivalent gains. The impact bias can amplify this bias, causing individuals to be even more reluctant to make decisions that involve any possibility of negative emotional consequences. They may become overly focused on avoiding negative outcomes, even at the expense of potentially beneficial opportunities.
3. Opportunity cost neglect: Impact bias can also lead to opportunity cost neglect, where people fail to consider the potential emotional benefits of positive outcomes when making decisions. They may underestimate the positive emotional impact of a successful decision and, as a result, miss out on opportunities for personal growth, achievement, or happiness.
4. Avoiding emotional turmoil: People may make decisions that prioritise avoiding emotional turmoil or discomfort, even if it means missing out on potentially rewarding experiences. For example, someone might decline an invitation to a social event because they anticipate feeling anxious or uncomfortable, even though attending the event could lead to positive social connections and enjoyment.

Understanding how impact bias can influence decision-making is essential for individuals to make more informed and rational choices. By recognising this bias and its potential effects, individuals can strive to make decisions that align more closely with their long-term goals and objectives, rather than being overly influenced by their inaccurate predictions of emotional impact (Wilson, Meyers & Gilbert, 2003).

Emotional well-being

Emotional well-being refers to an individual's overall state of emotional health and happiness. Impact bias plays a significant role in influencing how people perceive and predict their emotional well-being in response to various events and circumstances.

Specifically, impact bias can affect emotional well-being in the following ways:

1. Overestimation of emotional impact: People tend to overestimate the emotional impact of both positive and negative events on their emotional well-being. For example, they may believe that a negative event will have a more profound and lasting negative effect on their emotional well-being than it actually does.
2. Underestimation of emotional adaptation: Impact bias often involves underestimating an individual's capacity to adapt to emotional experiences over time. Human beings have a natural tendency to return to a baseline level of emotional well-being after both positive and negative events. However, individuals may underestimate this adaptability, leading to concerns about their long-term emotional well-being following an event.
3. Impact on decision-making: Impact bias can influence decisions related to one's emotional well-being. For instance, individuals may make decisions that prioritise short-term emotional comfort over long-term emotional well-being, such as avoiding risks or challenges because they fear the potential negative emotional impact.
4. Impact on satisfaction and happiness: Impact bias can affect overall life satisfaction and happiness. People's predictions about the emotional impact of events may lead them to make choices that limit their opportunities for happiness or personal growth, as they avoid potentially positive experiences or fail to appreciate the lasting benefits of those experiences.
5. Stress and anxiety: Impact bias can contribute to feelings of stress and anxiety as individuals anticipate negative events with exaggerated emotional consequences. This anticipation can lead to heightened levels of distress and discomfort, even before the event occurs, affecting emotional well-being in the present.

Understanding impact bias in the context of emotional well-being is important because it can lead individuals to make decisions and choices that are not in their best interest. By recognising and addressing this bias, individuals can make more realistic predictions about the emotional impact of events, leading to better decision-making and improved emotional well-being over time (Wilson & Gilbert, 2005).

Case study continuation We are both experiencing the impact bias in different ways. The impact bias in action: Overestimation of negative impact (Ex-partner): My ex-partner, who initiated the breakup, initially felt a sense of relief and independence after the decision. However, as the actual separation date approaches, they start to overestimate the negative emotional impact of the breakup. They imagine themselves feeling incredibly lonely, sad, and devastated. They worry that they won't be able to cope with the emotional pain and the void left by the relationship. Prediction inaccuracy (Me): On the other hand, I initially felt devastated by the breakup. I couldn't imagine my life without my ex-partner and I was convinced that I'd be miserable without them. I was experiencing a significant negative emotional impact. However, as time went on, I began to adapt to my new single life. I made new friends, took up hobbies, and realised that I can find happiness on my own. Despite these positive changes, I still fear the emotional impact of the breakup if I were to start dating someone new or confront the possibility of my ex-partner moving on.

What causes it?

Impact bias can be attributed to several psychological and cognitive factors. These factors combine to create a discrepancy between our predictions of emotional reactions and our actual experiences. Some causes of impact bias include:

Focalism

Focalism means that people often fixate on the event itself and its immediate emotional consequences, without considering the broader context or the fact that their emotional reactions may evolve over time. They become overly absorbed in the perceived emotional impact of a single event and underestimate the influence of other factors that can shape their emotional experiences (Dillard et al, 2021).

For example, if someone is anticipating a breakup with a romantic partner, focalism might lead them to obsessively dwell on the immediate sadness and distress they expect to feel, without considering the possibility of personal growth, new relationships, or the natural process of emotional healing that occurs over time.

Focalism can lead to inaccurate predictions about emotional reactions because it fails to account for the adaptability and resilience of individuals. While a significant event may initially elicit strong emotions, these emotions often attenuate as time passes, and people return to their baseline emotional state (Dillard et al, 2021).

Emotional amplification

Figure 4. Here is a physical representation of people focusing on the intense, negative aspects of their emotional response when making predictions

Emotional amplification occurs because individuals tend to focus on the most salient and intense aspects of their emotional response when making predictions. They often neglect the fact that emotions are complex and dynamic, and that they naturally fluctuate over time. This cognitive bias can lead to overly dramatic predictions about emotional reactions.

For example, someone might think that failing a single test will lead to utter despair and a complete breakdown, when in reality, they may feel upset initially but gradually adapt and recover emotionally.

Understanding emotional amplification and its role in the impact bias can help individuals make more realistic and balanced predictions about their emotional responses to events. By recognising that emotions are not always as extreme as they imagine, people can make more informed decisions and better manage their emotional well-being (Wilson et al, 2000).

Personal relevance

Personal relevance refers to the significance an individual attaches to a particular event or outcome. It plays a key role in how people predict and experience the emotional impact of events in their lives. When an event is personally relevant, individuals may overestimate its emotional impact and make decisions based on this perception (Wilson et al, 2000).

When an event is personally relevant, individuals are more likely to overestimate the emotional impact it will have on them. This means they may predict that the event will elicit stronger emotions than it actually does. For example, if someone highly values their career and anticipates a negative job evaluation, they might overestimate the emotional distress they will experience because the outcome is personally relevant to their self-esteem and identity (Wilson et al, 2000).

Cultural and social factors

Figure 5. People in the West tend to be more individualist, and people from East tend to be more collectivist. Where you come from affects how you perceive and predict the emotional impact of events

Cultural and social factors play a significant role in influencing impact bias, affecting how individuals perceive and predict the emotional impact of events. Here are some ways in which cultural and social factors can influence the impact bias:

1. Cultural norms: Cultural norms and values can shape people's beliefs about what events are significant and how they should be emotionally experienced. For example, in some cultures, individual achievements and personal success may be highly emphasised, leading individuals to overestimate the emotional impact of both positive and negative events related to their personal achievements.
2. Collectivism vs. individualism: Cultural variations in collectivism (emphasising group harmony and shared values) and individualism (emphasising personal goals and autonomy) can influence how people perceive the impact of events. In collectivist cultures, individuals may experience emotional amplification when events affect their family or community, while in individualistic cultures, personal achievements and losses may be given more weight.
3. Media and social media influence: Cultural and social factors are often reinforced by media and social media. The portrayal of certain events and their emotional consequences in media can shape people's expectations and predictions. Social media can also contribute to the impact bias by facilitating social comparisons and amplifying emotional responses.
4. Gender roles: Cultural expectations around gender roles can influence how individuals perceive and predict the impact of events. For instance, societal norms may lead to men or women having different expectations about how they should respond emotionally to specific situations.
5. Religious and spiritual beliefs: Cultural factors like religious and spiritual beliefs can influence how individuals perceive the emotional impact of events, as these beliefs often provide frameworks for interpreting life events and their significance.

In summary, cultural and social factors are essential elements in understanding the impact bias because they shape people's perceptions of what is personally relevant and significant in their lives. These factors can influence emotional predictions and responses to events and may vary widely across different cultural and social contexts (Kent, Roger, Cathy, Michael, & Cheung, 2005).

Test yourself Choose the correct answer and click "Submit": Which of the following does not cause impact bias? Cultural and social factors Reminiscing Emotional amplification Personal relevance

What are its consequences?

Impact bias can have several consequences that affect decision-making, well-being, and overall life satisfaction. Here are some of the key consequences:

1. Suboptimal decision-making: People may make decisions based on exaggerated predictions of emotional outcomes. This can lead to avoiding potentially rewarding experiences or engaging in unnecessary avoidance behaviours due to the fear of heightened negative emotions.
2. Excessive worry: Anticipating negative events with intense emotions that don't match reality can result in excessive worry and anxiety. The actual experience might not be as distressing as imagined, leading to unnecessary emotional distress.
3. Avoidance of opportunities: Individuals might avoid opportunities or new experiences because they anticipate negative emotions that are actually less intense than expected. This could hinder personal growth and limit exploration of new paths.
4. Lower life satisfaction: Impact bias can contribute to lower life satisfaction because individuals base their choices on inaccurate expectations of emotional outcomes. This can lead to feelings of disappointment and unfulfillment.
5. Consumer behaviour: Impact bias can affect purchasing decisions. People might avoid buying something they would actually enjoy due to the anticipated post-purchase regret, or they might make impulsive purchases expecting more happiness than they ultimately experience.

Being aware of the consequences of impact bias can help individuals recognise when they are making decisions or predictions based on this bias. By making an effort to acknowledge and mitigate impact bias, people can improve their decision-making, emotional well-being, and overall life satisfaction (Wilson, Meyers & Gilbert, 2003).

Can comparing similar experienced situations help avoid impact bias?:

	True
	False

How can it be avoided?

Avoiding impact bias involves developing awareness of the bias and adopting strategies to make more accurate predictions about future emotional reactions. Here are some steps you can take to mitigate the impact bias (Wilson, Meyers & Gilbert, 2003):

1. Reflect on past experiences: Review past events to understand how your emotions differed from your initial predictions. This can help you recognise patterns of impact bias in your own thinking.
2. Consider similar situations: Compare the anticipated event to similar situations you've experienced before. This can provide a more realistic basis for predicting your emotional response.
3. Imagine realistic scenarios: When imagining future events, focus on realistic details and context. Consider both positive and negative factors that could influence your emotional reaction.
4. Focus on coping strategies: Instead of dwelling on potential negative emotions, focus on how you can cope with challenges if they arise. This shifts your attention from the predicted intensity to your ability to handle the situation.
5. Cultivate emotional intelligence: Enhance your understanding of your own emotional responses. The better you know yourself, the more accurately you can predict your emotional reactions.

Case study resolution For myself, the impact bias begins to fade after the breakup. I went through a period of sadness and adjustment but I found that the emotional impact was not as overwhelming as I initially anticipated. I leaned on my support network of friends and family, gradually rebuilding my life and emotional well-being. For my ex-partner, the impact bias also diminishes over time. They realised that they can find happiness and contentment independently. They start dating someone new and find that they can emotionally invest in a new relationship without feeling the same level of emotional turmoil they predicted. Their experience demonstrates that individuals have a remarkable capacity for emotional adaptation and resilience. This personal case study illustrates how the impact bias can affect both parties in a breakup. People often overestimate the negative emotional impact of such events, but with time and support, they can adapt and find emotional well-being again. It also shows how the impact bias can influence one's perception of the emotional consequences of a breakup, leading to initial fears and predictions that may not align with the actual experience of moving on and finding happiness independently.

Conclusion

Impact bias is the tendency of people to overestimate the emotional impact of future events, both positive and negative. People often predict that future events will have a stronger and longer-lasting emotional effect on them than they actually do. This cognitive bias can lead to inaccurate predictions about how certain experiences or outcomes will make them feel. Both positive and negative events can contribute to impact bias by causing individuals to make inaccurate predictions about their emotional reactions. For positive events, people tend to overestimate the magnitude and duration of positive emotions, while for negative events, they tend to overestimate the intensity and duration of negative emotions. Understanding these biases can help individuals make more realistic predictions and better cope with the emotional consequences of various life events. Impact bias can also influence the choices and decisions that individuals make because they often mis-predict how they will feel about the outcomes of those decisions. Impact bias plays a significant role in influencing how people perceive and predict their emotional well-being in response to various events and circumstances.

Some of the causes of impact bias is focalism, which means people often fixate on the event itself and its immediate emotional consequences, without considering the broader context or the fact that their emotional reactions may evolve over time. Personal relevance is the significance an individual attaches to a particular event or outcome. Lastly, cultural and social factors shape people's perceptions of what is personally relevant and significant in their lives. These factors can influence emotional predictions and responses to events and may vary widely across different cultural and social contexts. Suboptimal decision-making, excessive worry, avoidance of opportunities, lower life satisfaction, and consumer behaviour are some of the consequences of impact bias people can face. Impact bias can be avoided by reflecting on past events to understand how your emotions differed from your initial predictions, comparing the anticipated event to similar situations you've experienced before, considering both positive and negative factors that could influence your emotional reaction, shifting your focus from potential negative emotions, focus on how you can cope with challenges if they arise, and enhancing your understanding of your own emotional responses.

Answers to focus questions: What is impact bias? - Impact bias is the cognitive bias where individuals tend to overestimate the emotional intensity and duration of their future reactions to events, both positive and negative. What causes it? - Impact bias is primarily caused by individuals' tendency to focus on the event itself, neglecting other factors and underestimating their emotional adaptability over time. What are its consequences? - The consequences of impact bias include missed opportunities, avoidance of potentially beneficial experiences, heightened stress and anxiety, and a reduced overall sense of emotional well-being. How can it be avoided? - To avoid impact bias, individuals can strive for more realistic predictions of their emotional responses by considering their resilience, the adaptability of their emotions, and the broader context of events.

See also

• Affective forecasting (Wikipedia)
• Attentional bias for emotional stimuli (Book chapter, 2021)
• Optimism bias (Book chapter, 2021)

References

Aitken, J. A. (2021). Affective forecasts for the experience itself: An investigation of the impact bias during an affective experience. Current Psychology: Research & Reviews, 42, 10581-10587. https://doi-org.ezproxy.canberra.edu.au/10.1007/s12144-021-02337-8

Bachmann, O. (2010) 'Predicting future happiness: an attempt to determine factors underlying the impact bias', The Plymouth Student Scientist, p. 60-85. https://pearl.plymouth.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/10026.1/13895/TPSS-2010-Vol3n1_60-85Bachmann.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Buechel, E. C., Zhang, J., & Morewedge, C. K. (2017). Impact bias or underestimation? Outcome specifications predict the direction of affective forecasting errors. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 146(5), 746–761. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0000306

Dillard, A. J., Dean, K. K., Gilbert, H., & Lipkus, I. M. (2020). You won’t regret it (or love it) as much as you think: Impact biases for everyday health behavior outcomes. Psychology & Health 36(7), 761–786. https://doi.org/10.1080/08870446.2020.1795171

Lam, K. C. H., Buehler, R., McFarland, C., Ross, M., & Cheung, I. (2005). Cultural difference in affective forecasting: The role of focalism. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin, 31(9), 1296-1309. https://doi-org.ezproxy.canberra.edu.au/10.1177/0146167205274691

Levine, L. J., Lench, H. C., Kaplan, R. L., & Safer, M. A. (2013). Like Schrödinger’s cat, the impact bias is both dead and alive: Reply to Wilson and Gilbert (2013). Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 105(5), 749–756. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0034340

Morewedge, C. K., & Buechel, E. C. (2013). Motivated underpinnings of the impact bias in affective forecasts. Emotion, 13(6), 1023–1029. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0033797

Noval, L. J. (2016). On the misguided pursuit of happiness and ethical decision making: The roles of focalism and the impact bias in unethical and selfish behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 133, 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2015.12.004

Wilson, T. D., & Gilbert, D. T. (2005). Affective forecasting: Knowing what to want. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 14(3), 131-134. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0963-7214.2005.00355.x

Wilson, T. D., & Gilbert, D. T. (2013). The impact bias is alive and well. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 105(5), 740–748. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0032662

Wilson, T. D., Meyers, J., & Gilbert, D. T. (2003). How happy was I, anyway? A retrospective impact bias.” Social cognition, 21(6), 421–446. https://doi.org/10.1521/soco.21.6.421.28688

Wilson, T. D., Wheatley, T., Meyers, J. M., Gilbert, D. T., & Axsom, D. (2000). Focalism: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78(5), 821-836. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.78.5.821

External links

• How to Be Happy When Everything Goes Wrong (jamesclear.com)
• Impact Bias: Or How Professor and Writer Mispredict their Emotions in Stalker (YouTube)
• Impact bias | Shortcuts (en.shortcogs.com)
• Why we make bad decisions - Dan Gilbert TED Talk(Ted Talk)